Jessica's Newsletter 

Q1 2026

Welcome to my newsletter where I give you an insider's take on real estate, with a special emphasis on where I sell — San Francisco. Thankfully it's cooling down a bit after an out of character spring heatwave got a little too hot for many of us long-time San Franciscans to handle!

Uneasy Backdrop

The national mood is anxious. The US is at war with Iran. Economists are sounding the alarm about oil supply, and recession talk is back on the table. In the last 48 hours markets have rebounded a little on signs of de-escalation. But the situation remains fluid. We were seeing price increases at the pump — and everywhere else, too. Covid-era health subsidies for about 20M people expired, and many of their premiums increased sharply. Home and car insurance prices are up, food costs are higher. It's rumored that AI will send unemployment into the double digits within a year. Meta is now reportedly planning to cut its workforce by about 20 percent as AI spending ramps up, potentially giving other companies cover to follow suit. It's no wonder people feel unsettled.

The AI Wave Is Building

Yet San Francisco real estate is going up, up, up. Inventory is still running roughly 20 percent to 25 percent below where it was this time last year. And the anticipation of future IPOs from local AI giants like Anthropic and OpenAI, with Databricks still widely viewed as a potential candidate, is fueling a buying frenzy unlike anything we have seen — at least not in my 20 years of selling real estate here. (This year is my 20th anniversary!)

Late last year, rents started rising quickly (up 13% year over year in 2025), and buyers became more aggressive, trying to get into the market before a larger AI wealth wave hits. That wave is already building. Sales of San Francisco homes above $5 million jumped more than 50 percent year over year in late 2025 after employee share sales at companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Since then, the luxury surge has only intensified, with February 2026 showing a 220 percent year over year jump in sales above $5 million. What we are seeing now is the effect of early liquidity. The larger wealth event still lies ahead.

Frothy Times

On the ground, this market feels extremely frenetic. My first listing of the year, priced at $1.995 million, sold $660,000 over asking. The next, a 1,900 square foot Noe Valley home listed at $2.695 million, drew 10 offers and sold for $3.75 million. My clients wrote on a 2,500 square foot Inner Sunset home listed at $2.295 million that received 35 offers and closed for $4.1 million. These are not isolated stories. They are part of a broader pattern of buyers repricing single family homes here in real time.

Staying Put

In addition to buyers trying to get ahead of the AI wave, low inventory is a major driver of the current frenzy. Very few homeowners are willing to trade a 2.875% mortgage for today’s pricing and 6%+ financing. As a result, the only meaningful supply is coming from those already planning to leave the city. For everyone else—especially families settled here—the incentive to sell just isn’t there. They’re financially stable, often doing well in this market, and unwilling to uproot their lives. For many San Francisco homeowners, no price is compelling enough.

 Intel For Buyers

Underneath these early 2026 offer tales is valuable insight into the market. Cash accounts for roughly half of the offers I'm seeing. Way more than in previous years. Listing agents are issuing multiple counter offers more often because the fast pace of the market makes it extremely difficult — even for experienced agents and highly qualified buyers — to anchor value using outdated comps. In several multiple counter situations this year, buyers who started hundreds of thousands below the top offers—and in one case close to a million lower—ended up coming from behind to win, or come very close. The bottom line for buyers: the ability to act decisively in the absence of certainty wins. It also helps to pay with cash, to be willing to stretch your price well beyond today's value, and to think of the purchase as a long-term hold. Just minor details.

Undervalued SF

Is this a true leveling up in SF home values or a flash in the pan? San Francisco's price per foot values specifically have remained relatively stagnant for many years. In the most popular, competitive neighborhoods, price per foot values have shifted only $100-$200 up or down depending on the year. Take Noe Valley for example: for nearly a decade, the neighborhood's median price per square foot values generally ranged from the mid-$1,100s to the high-$1,300s, with mostly low single-digit year-over-year changes. 2026 is a clear departure from that pattern. Now at an average of more than $1,700/ft—up more than 27% year over year—Noe's price per foot average has skyrocketed. The general consensus is that this market is here for at least a couple of years. And these values could be the new floor.

The Straight Dope

If you’re a buyer, be prepared and bring conviction. But also take comfort that the same forces creating this frenzy—limited inventory and strong, well-capitalized homeowners—also provide a level of insulation when the inevitable downturn does occur. Even when values pull back, San Francisco historically doesn’t experience the same level of distress. During the 2008 downturn, yes, inventory rose, but we saw nowhere near the volume of short sales and foreclosures as in other markets. If you’re a seller, this may be a rare window to achieve a price you’ve always dreamed of. If any market environment is going to deliver that outcome, it’s this one.

Thank You & Graduation

Last year marked my strongest year ever in real estate, and I am honored to rank among the very top agents in San Francisco. Thank you so much for your continued trust, and for always recommending me to your friends and family. In a couple of months I'll be heading out to Southern California for my daughter's college graduation. She was just 18 months old when I started my business, and I was pregnant with my son! It has been an amazing 20 years, and I feel incredibly lucky to have worked with so many of you. 

As always please don't hesitate to reply with any of your own questions or needs. I always look forward to hearing from you.

Happy spring!
Jessica