Here we are, a full year after our country shut down. We are in a much better place now. And although there is still uncertainty — kids out of school, and people sick and out of work — Covid cases are way down, we have a new president, vaccines for the virus, and some hope on the horizon. In the US, at the time of writing, 60% of people aged 65 and older are vaccinated against Covid, and two million people are being vaccinated each day. 

Mid Pandemic Frenzy

2020 was a crazy year for SF real estate. Despite the pandemic and all the required changes to the way we sell real estate during a pandemic, once we could resume selling homes in April of 2020, the homes generally sold swiftly and competitively. Last year some homes that I sold in Q2 and Q3 went $500-$700K over asking. Check out: www.ValleyStreetDream.com (listed at $3,295,000 and sold for $3,800,000) and www.LibertyStreetDream.com (listed at $2,195,000 and sold for $2,975,000) to name a couple.

End of the Year Uncertainty

Then in October, the SF market became glutted with inventory. The pandemic was really taking its toll and making people rethink how they wanted to live — and by October many were ready to act. People sold their smaller homes and traded them for homes with more space and more rooms — to accommodate multiple people working, Zooming and schooling from home. People traded from condos into homes where they wouldn't have to share elevators, outdoor spaces, or laundry rooms. People moved out of the city completely, seeking quieter, greener places where they could escape the emptiness that the now quiet city had come to represent. 

Living in Luxury 

Whatever the reasons, our market became flooded with inventory right at the same time that we waited for the US Presidential election results, and that made for a rough Q4. Condo listings took up most of the market, and we saw a record number of price reductions and double digit days on the market — signs of weakness we hadn't seen since 2008. Buyer's on the whole didn't feel confident enough to take advantage of the new "buyer's market." Still, 2020 overall didn't end so terribly, condos lost 3% in sales price overall, single family homes gained 3%, and luxury home sales over $3M went up more than 6%. (See more SF stats, charts and graphs on my website.) This underscores the overall strength of the Bay Area economy. Luxury home sales went up because most people buying at that level have jobs they are not leaving, easily transitioned to work from home, had more disposable income from staying home, and just needed more room.

Hope on the Horizon

Then, at the very end of the year, the majority of people in the US acknowledged there was going to be a new president coming in January who promised to take the pandemic and all of its fallout very seriously. There were also two vaccines approved for use in the US that were shown to be highly effective in preventing Covid. Buyers said: I better buy something before interest rates go up and everyone gets vaccinated and goes back to the office. Sellers said: I should hold off on selling until the vaccine roll out gets farther along and things start to go back to normal. And we have the situation we're in now in Q1 2021: low inventory and high buyer demand. 

Once again, we have double digit disclosure requests, preemptive offers that are hundreds of thousands over the list price, and heavy competition for good properties. Condos are now selling swiftly, too. Interest rates are ticking up a bit. SF rents went up a tad after a steep drop last year. 

Existential Crises

Yet we still have some existential reckoning going on, too.

Will we ever be required to go back to the office? When will all kids be back in school? Sonoma seems like a great place to live or retire to, except for the fires and the smoke. Marin seems idyllic, but not if you have to drive to Silicon Valley three days a week... in traffic. What will the City be like when we have herd immunity? 

People are really giving thought to making changes they never expected to make. 

San Francisco Strong

I'm still in love with San Francisco. I love how everyone wears a mask everywhere and treats servers and essential workers with the utmost respect they deserve. I love the sunny, beautiful winter days and the gorgeous walks - from Bernal Hill to Land's End. You can have Zuni chicken, Nopalito carnitas, and Michelin level sushi in the comfort of your home. You can walk down the middle of Valencia street shopping and eating outside at the parklets, ride your bike or roller skate the Great Highway, and picnic at the beach. And, be back at home working at your desk within 15 minutes. Yes there are some downsides to the city too right now, it's not all roses. But I believe that it will morph into something even better.

So, at least for the first few months of the year the SF market has come back strong. Will inventory become glutted again in the spring as seller's look to take advantage? Will the buyer pool start to dissipate as prices and interest rates go up? Some financial experts say we'll be in for a recession at the end of this year/early 2022 - when we have to pay for the damage done by and the money spent on dealing with the pandemic. I don't have a crystal ball, but I see the resilience here. 

As always do not hesitate to reach out about any real estate questions big or small. I've become quite the expert at selling homes successfully during the pandemic. I hope you and yours are staying safe and well, and to see you in person someday soon,

Jessica